A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be holding, with the US/France-brokered deal that came into effect Nov. 27 prompting thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians to head for their homes in the south. While there were celebrations on the road, so many homes, businesses and lives have been destroyed that the return is also marred by sorrow—with bodies still under the rubble of buildings flattened by Israel's bombs. The days before the deal were particularly devastating, with Israel levelling an apartment block in central Beirut, reportedly killing at least 29 people. Both sides have traded accusations of violating the truce, which is based on the UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war. The next 60 days, during which both Hezbollah and Israel are set to withdraw from south Lebanon, will be crucial. While US President Joe Biden hopes to use this momentum to push for a deal in Gaza, no clear progress has been made on that front—meaning there is still no respite for civilians there. Israel is intensifying its bombardment in central Gaza, where medics say its military killed at least 26 people on the day after the Lebanon deal began, and aid—already mostly blockaded by Israel—is reportedly now being looted on a large scale with impunity.

In the most significant escalation in Syria since a 2020 ceasefire instated under emergency conditions during the COVID pandemic, rebel forces in northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 28 launched a surprise offensive on the country's second most populous city, Aleppo. The rebel advance is said to have penetrated the perimeter of the city, which had been held for years by rebel forces before it was retaken by the regime with the help of Russian air power in 2016. Russia has responded to the new offensive with fresh air-strikes on Idlib, which has been coming under intermittent Russian bombardment for years. At least 225 fatalities are reported in the new fighting, including some 25 civilians killed in Russian air-strikes. 

A UN report released Oct. 11 documented Israeli attacks on healthcare facilities and medical personnel in the Gaza Strip in violation of international human rights law, calling the attacks war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report—written by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel—also condemned Israeli treatment of detainees, citing instances of abuse, torture, sexual assault, and arbitrary detention.

With Lebanon under bombardment and the world awaiting Israel's response to the Iranian missile attacks on its territory, fears mount that Iran's nuclear facilities could be targeted—which, in addition to being an environmental disaster in its own right, could represent the crossing of a moral threshold toward the use of nuclear weapons. So two theaters of the world conflict—the Middle East and Ukraine—now constitute a looming nuclear threat. Meanwhile, the other horsemen of the apocalypse continue their relentless advance—climate change, cyber-based disinformation and the ultimate replacement of humanity by artificial intelligence. In Episode 246 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg looks for glimmers of hope in emerging signs of human resistance—such as the East Coast dockworkers' strike, which is demanding a ban on all automation at the ports.

Iran launched scores of ballistic missiles into Israeli territory on Oct. 1, in what it described as an exercise of its "legitimate right to self-defense under the UN Charter." The attack came hours after Israel announced a ground incursion into Lebanon, and as UN experts warned of the dire consequences of regional hostilities.

UN officials on Sept. 26 warned of a rapidly worsening humanitarian crisis in Lebanon as death tolls mount from Israeli air-strikes. Secretary-General António Guterres told the Security Council:  "Hell is breaking loose in Lebanon and we should all be alarmed by the escalation." The warnings came just as Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu arrived in New York for the UN General Assembly. Human Rights Watch one day earlier called for urgent UN action, reporting that some 1,600 Israeli strikes have killed at least 558 people, including 50 children, and injured thousands in the span of two days. The UN's Refugee Agency revealed that some 90,000 Lebanese residents had been displaced in the span of 72 hours.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) stated Sept. 18 that the simultaneous detonation of thousands of communication devices across Lebanon and Syria violated customary international law. Thousands of pagers exploded the day before, killing 12 and injuring more than 2,000 people. Walkie-talkie explosions the following day killed an additional 25 and injured at least 600. The devices were evidently part of the Hezbollah communication network. Israel is widely believed to be behind the explosions, but has not commented.

A fresh round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations got underway in Doha, Qatar, on Aug. 15. The aim is to reach a deal to bring an end to Israel’s more than 10-month-long war in the Gaza Strip and secure the release of the estimated 115 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups from their Oct. 7 attacks into Israel last year. Forty-one of the hostages are believed to be dead, and the recorded death toll from Israel's military campaign has now reached over 40,000, according to health authorities in Gaza. That's roughly 2% of Gaza’s population—or one out of every 50 residents—that has been killed.