In Episode 265 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines Trump's ultimatum to Ukraine to hand over a large share of its wealth in strategic minerals such as lithium in exchange for continued US military aid—and whether a race with China for control of the lithium and rare earth elements needed for Elon Musk's industrial interests might also be the agenda behind the Trump regime's annexationist designs on Greenland. Trump is meanwhile opening Native American lands in Nevada to lithium exploitation, while Musk's Tesla has sought to grab a share of Bolivia's lithium reserves—now also coveted by China.

Speaking at the NATO summit in Brussels Feb. 12, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth not only ruled out Ukrainian membership in the alliance, but said that Kyiv's goal of recovering all territory lost since Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea was an "unrealistic objective." Trump quickly followed up by boasting on social media: "I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia... We have...agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation..." (Politico)

Dubbed "Sahelexit," the decision by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the West African regional community known as ECOWAS is now official. The three members of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—sanctioned over coups that overturned their elected governments—are out. It leaves the 12 other countries in ECOWAS, one of Africa's most economically integrated blocs, rethinking the organization's relevance. Like ECOWAS, the new group will allow free movement between their shared territories—now derisively referred to as the "coup belt." But it is in the field of security cooperation that the AES states will be especially missed. Jihadist insurgents are on the march. So-called "Islamic State" forces have set up in northwest Nigeria, where they are known as Lakurawa. With neighboring Niger now pulling out of a regional Multilateral Joint Task Force, there are fears that countering the threat will be all the harder.

In a dramatic escalation of the ongoing conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the M23 rebels on Jan. 26 seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu province on the Rwandan border. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation, with the DRC accusing Rwanda of sending hundreds of troops across the border to support the M23. The DRC is caling for an arms embargo on Rwanda, and sanctions on its mineral exports.

The M23 armed group is continuing to pursue expansionist objectives across eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, according to a report by UN experts. The report underscores the failure of the ceasefire deals and peace talks held between DRC and Rwanda (which supports the rebels) under the aegis of Angola. It argues that the M23 plans the long-term occupation and exploitation of conquered territories, where it has been setting up parallel administrations and recruiting thousands of new members, including children. It states that the group has been consolidating support from other armed movements in Ituri, South Kivu and North Kivu provinces, forging non-aggression pacts and building new proxy forces. The rebels are also making a large profit from taxing mineral production, especially at the Rubaya mining sites in North Kivu, one of the world's largest sources of coltan. The minerals are being "fraudulently exported" to Rwanda in what amounts to the "largest contamination" of mineral supply chains recorded in the region to date.

Three weeks after the fall of the Bashar Assad dictatorship, the only fighting in Syria remains between Arab and Kurdish militias—holding grim potential for destabilization of the democratic revolution. Kurds had been persecuted and even denied citizenship under the Assad regime, but the invasion of their autonomous territory of Rojava by the Turkish-backed rebels of the Syrian National Army (SNA) drove them into a paradoxical tactical alliance with the dictatorship. The tragic situation in Burma's Rakhine state mirrors this disturbing reality. The Muslim Rohingya people had been persecuted, denied citizenship and finally targeted in a campaign of genocide by the military, but are now facing attacks by the Buddhist-supremacist rebels of the Arakan Army—driving some Rohingya into a paradoxical tactical alliance with the military junta. In Episode 258 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg offers this comparison in the hope that the peoples of Burma can unite across religious lines to defeat the junta, and that Syrians can find a way toward co-existence in the new revolutionary order and avoid ethnic war. 

Two attacks on "defenseless civilian populations" along Niger's border with Burkina Faso left some 40 dead between Dec. 12 and 14, authorities said. Niamey's defense ministry said 21 were killed in Libiri village and 18 in Kokorou, both in Tillabéri region. The statement blamed "criminals," but the borderlands are a stronghold of jihadist insurgents. An even worse attack was reported days earlier, but is being denied by Niger's ruling junta. Authorities suspended the operations of the BBC in Niger after it reported that jihadists had killed 90 soldiers and upwards of 40 civilians at Chatoumane, also in Tillabéri. According to the monitor Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), at least 1,500 soldiers and civilians have been killed in jihadist attacks in Niger in the past year—more than double the 650 killed from July 2022 to July 2023. (AFP, France24, RFI, BBC News, TRT World)

Amid jubilation following the overthrow of long-ruling dictator Bashar Assad, the only fighting in Syria is now between Arabs and Kurds—as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) expels the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from the town of Manbij. Ankara's design is clearly to expunge the Kurdish autonomous zone in the northeast region of Rojava. Yet there are also positive signs of an accommodation between the Rojava Kurds and the new revolutionary administration in Damascus. In Episode 256 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg examines the new political landscape in Syria and tries to identify a way forward—past the threat of ethnic war and toward a multicultural democracy.