Tensions are ratcheting up in the Horn of Africa over the deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia. Ethiopia, Somalia's neighbor, isn’t happy. It has soldiers in Somalia acting as a buffer against al-Shabab insurgents, but now Mogadishu has asked them to withdraw. High-stakes strategic interests are at play. Ethiopia and Egypt have been locked in a long-standing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt regards as an existential threat. Meanwhile, landlocked Ethiopia has also enraged Somalia over its determination to find a port to lease. It has turned to the breakaway region of Somaliland, dangling the prospect of recognizing its independence—an absolute red line for Mogadishu. The new defense agreement between Egypt and Somalia has underlined just how serious the tensions are. Egypt is planning to send 5,000 soldiers to Somalia to join a new-look African Union force, with a separate 5,000 stationed on the Ethiopian border.

An ambush by local militia on a weapons convoy in central Somalia has been described as the country's "single most serious incident of arms proliferation." The looted weapons included assault rifles, machine guns, and rocket-propelled grenades. The convoy had crossed from Ethiopia on July 15 when it was attacked near the border town of Abudwaq (Galmudug state). The consignment is believed to have been destined for one of the clans in the area that is allied with government forces waging a stalled offensive against the jihadist group al-Shabab. The price of an AK-47 has since dropped by one third on the local market. The weapons are not only likely to fuel inter-clan conflict, but they could also be bought by a resurgent al-Shabab or by bandits in northern Kenya. As al-Shabab wins back territory, it's prioritizing its rural political message, while continuing its campaign of bomb attacks in the capital, Mogadishu. 

There is "credible" evidence that Ethiopian forces committed genocide during the two-year war in northern Tigray region, a new report has concluded. Ethiopia's National Defense Force and its allies—the paramilitary Amhara Special Forces and the Eritrean Defense Forces—are accused of committing "at least four acts" constituting genocide against Tigrayans, including: killing, causing serious bodily or mental harm, deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about their destruction, and imposing measures intended to prevent childbirth. The report by the New Lines Institute, a US-based foreign policy think-tank, called for Ethiopia to be referred to the UN's top court, the International Court of Justice.

Two strikes that killed 23 civilians during Somali military operations supported by Turkish drones must be investigated as war crimes, Amnesty International said May 7. Civilians killed in the strikes on March 18 included 14 children, five women and four men. Another 17 civilians were injured in the strikes: 11 children, two women and four men. All were from the marginalized Gorgaarte clan.

Records were once again broken last year for greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, and retreat of glaciers, according to a new global report issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) March 19. The WMO State of the Global Climate 2023 report finds that on an average day that year, nearly one third of the ocean surface was gripped by a marine heatwave, harming vital ecosystems and food systems—far beyond the already inflated levels seen in recent years. Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest extent on record—at one million square kilometers below the previous record year of 2022, an area equivalent to the size of France and Germany combined. Observed concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—reached record levels in 2022 and continued to increase in 2023, preliminary data shows. (UN News)

An investigation published by Reuters on Feb. 23 reveals that a "secret committee" of high-ranking officials in Ethiopia has been overseeing a campaign of extra-judicial killings, illegal detentions and other human rights violations in an effort to eliminate the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgent group. The so-called Koree Nageenyaa (Security Committee in the Oromo language) has ordered "hundreds of arrests" and "dozens of killings" of any persons suspected of involvemtnt with the OLA, as well as a "massacre of 14 shepherds in Oromia in 2021 that the government has previously blamed on OLA fighters." The Koree Nageenyaa is reportedly headed by Prime Minister Abiy's former chief of staff and current president of the Oromia region, Shimelis Abdisa.

Nearly 400 people have died of starvation in Ethiopia's Tigray and Amhara regions in recent months, according to the national ombudsman. It's a rare admission of hunger-related deaths by a federal body—the government normally dismisses famine warnings as "politicking." Despite the lifting in November of a nationwide food aid freeze imposed by USAID and the World Food Program over large-scale government-run food thefts, just 14% of 3.2 million people targeted for food relief in Tigray received rations last month. There have reportedly been technical problems over fitting GPS trackers to food trucks and putting QR codes on ration cards. A lack of money is also an issue: the UN called on donors last month to urgently ramp up funding to avoid a catastrophe in the coming few months in Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Oromia, and southern Ethiopia, where around 4 million people need immediate food aid.

Addis Ababa held talks on military cooperation with Somaliland Jan. 8—a week after announcing a controversial deal on sea access through the self-governing unrecognized republic. The talks began the same day Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud visited Eritrea (Ethiopia's regional rival) seeking support for his harsh opposition to the deal, decried as a step toward recognition of Somaliland's independence. President Mohamud also signed a law Jan. 6 nullifying the New Year's Day memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the governments of Ethiopia and Somaliland, which grants the landlocked regional power a corridor to Somaliland's port of Berbera. The Somaliland government, based in Hargeisa, claims full sovereignty, and does not recognize Mogadishu's jurisdiction over the territory. (TNH, BBC News, Jurist)