new cold war
US shifts nuclear posture to confront China
President Biden approved in March a highly classified nuclear posture document for the first time reorienting US deterrent strategy to focus on China's rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal. The shift comes as the Pentagon believes China's stockpiles will rival the size and diversity of those of the United States and Russia over the next decade. The new "Nuclear Employment Guidance" is so highly classified that there are no electronic copies, and only a small number of hard copies distributed to top national security officials and Pentagon brass. But a copy was just obtained by the New York Times.
China and Russia launch joint naval exercise
Chinese and Russian naval forces have begun a joint exercise at a southern Chinese military port, China's Ministry of National Defense announced July 12. The "Maritime Joint-2024" exercise is taking place off Zhanjiang, Guangdong province, on the South China Sea. Its stated objectives include demonstrating the the two nations' ability to address maritime security threats, maintain regional stability, and deepen their strategic partnership.
Russia-DPRK defense pact: Cold War redux
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense assistance pact on June 19 during Putin's first visit to Pyongyang since 2000. According to a statement from the Russian government, the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership stipulates "mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties thereto." Putin characterized the deal as a "breakthrough document," reflecting the desire to elevate relations to a "new qualitative level."
Maritime collision escalates South China Sea tensions
Manila has accused Chinese military vessels of engaging in "dangerous manoeuvres, including ramming and towing" a Philippine ship in an effort to disrupt a "routine" resupply mission to an outpost on Second Thomas Shoal (known to the Philippines as Ayungin Shoal) in the the disputed Spratly Islands (known to the Philippines as the Kalayaan Islands) June 17. By Philippine media accounts, the craft was fired upon with water cannon and boarded by Chinese troops, with several Filipino soldiers injured in the ensuing confrontation. (SCMP, Nikkei Asia, Inquirer, GMA)
Tuvalu regains full sovereignty over security relations
Australia and Tuvalu released a joint statement May 9 announcing new commitments to improve security relations, and remove the veto power Australia previously had over the small island nation's security relations with other countries. The announcement concerned implementation and interpretation of the Falepili Union, a bilateral treaty entered into on Nov. 9, 2023, which expands upon the Australia-Tuvalu Security Partnership Memorandum of Understanding of 2017. "Falepili" is a Tuvaluan term for neighbors, which the treaty says "embodies the values underpinning the deeper partnership, including care and mutual respect."
Podcast: geopolitics of the Barbie affair
In Episode 181 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg discusses the strange reality that the Barbie move has been banned in Vietnam over a brief image of a world map appearing to show the "nine-dash line" demarcating China's unilaterally claimed territory in the South China Sea. While US-China brinkmanship over Taiwan has won headlines recently, Beijing's maritime dispute with Hanoi holds unsettling potential for escalation. In a nearly surreal paradox (for those who remember their history) Vietnam has actually been tilting to the US in the new cold war with China. It has also been increasingly resorting to internal police-state measures to protect the interests of foreign capital in the country. All of this constitutes a rebuke both to the neoliberals, who cling to the discredited dogma that "free markets" inevitably lead to peace and democracy, and to the tankies, who rally around both the regimes in Beijing and Hanoi, in defiance of political reality.
Podcast: state capitalism and the Uyghur genocide
In Episode 149 of the CounterVortex podcast, Bill Weinberg notes that the UN Human Rights Office determination that China may be guilty of "crimes against humanity" in its mass detention of Uyghurs in Xinjiang province is dismissed by the tankie-left ANSWER Coalition as "propagandistic." Meanwhile, it falls to Radio Free Asia, media arm of the US State Department, to aggressively cover the very real conditions of forced labor faced by the Uyghurs and other Turkic peoples of Xinjiang—and how Western corporations benefit from it. While the Western pseudo-left betrays the Uyghurs, US imperialism exploits their suffering for propaganda against a rising China in the Great Game for the Asia-Pacific region. Figures such as Australia's Kevin Rudd incorrectly portray a "Return of Red China," blaming the PRC's increasingly totalitarian direction on a supposed neo-Marxism. Fortunately, the new anthology Xinjiang Year Zero offers a corrective perspective, placing the industrial-detention complex and techno-security state in the context of global capitalism and settler colonialism.
Taiwan expands rights for indigenous peoples
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen on Aug. 3, speaking at an Indigenous Rights Forum in Taipei held to mark Indigenous Peoples' Day, pledged new measures to protect and promote the languages, cultures and territorial rights of the island nation's Aboriginal communities. Tsai noted that the new Indigenous Peoples Basic Act seeks to bring Taiwanese law and policy into conformity with the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP), and calls for re-assigning the country's place names to reflect Aboriginal languages. Her office has established a Transitional Justice Committee to oversee implementation of the law in collaboration with Aboriginal communities.
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