Even as a measure of stability at last comes to Mogadishu, a push by UN-backed African Union troops on the last bastion of Somalia's al-Shabab insurgency has already added to the country's civilian casualties, and there are fears that more may lie ahead as air, ground and naval operations in the strategic city escalate. The latest, and most senior, person to raise the alarm over the actions of the Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF), which officially operate under the banner of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), was UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Mark Bowden. "I am deeply concerned by recent reports of civilian casualties in Kismayo caused by naval gunfire and airstrikes," Bowden said in a statement issued on Aug. 14. "As fighting for control of the town appears imminent, I reiterate my call for all parties to the conflict to make every effort to minimize the impact of conflict on civilians and to allow full humanitarian access to all people in need," he said.

The city has a population of 90,000, with another 77,000 living in surrounding areas. Thanks to illegal exports of charcoal, the port is a major source of the insurgency’s income. The city is also likely to become the capital of a proposed semi-autonomous region under the country’s imminent federal government—a region sometimes referred to as the Jubaland Initiative. 

Human rights organizations say all parties to Somalia’s conflict—AMISOM, the forces of the outgoing Transitional Federal Government (TFG), al-Shabab and other armed groups—have violated International Humanitarian Law, chiefly through the use of indiscriminate fire. Between August 2010 and August 2011, there were 4,000 combat-related civilian casualties in Somalia, including 1,000 deaths, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). On Aug. 20, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) will officially turn power to a permanent parliament (elected by clan leaders), but this may not mean an end to the war.

In October 2011, the medical relief agency Médécins Sans Frontières (MSF) said its staff treated dozens of injured following an aerial bombardment on the town of Jilib that hit a camp for internally displaced people.  Kenya, which had deployed militarily in Somalia two weeks earlier, said it had only targeted al-Shabab positions.  Since then, KDF forces have been "re-hatted" under AMISOM. 

"AMISOM is cognizant of its responsibilities under International Humanitarian Laws," the mission's senior spokesman, Eloi Yao told IRIN. "As such, it has adopted a policy on the use of indirect fire weapons and has trained its peacekeepers on the same. As in operations in Mogadishu and its environs, all precautions are being observed, including the establishment of no-fire zones for use of artillery in populated areas and around schools, mosques and markets," he said. 

But, he added, when asked about KDF's weekend bombardment of Kismayo, "Not all air assets operating in the Somali airspace are under [AMISOM's ] command."

One factor that could limit civilian casualties is al-Shabab’s recent history of avoiding major engagement with advancing AMISOM forces. As they did in Mogadishu in mid-2011, the insurgents are expected by some analysts to withdraw from Kismayo rather than put up a fight. 

When AMISOM/TFG took control of the town of Afgoye, near Mogadishu, in May 2012, they took steps to reduce civilian casualties by choosing the routes of attack into the corridor carefully and by requiring multiple verifications of targets. Yet, as one humanitarian source explained, that operation also disrupted humanitarian activities and displaced tens of thousands of people, many of whom fled in anticipation of the actual fighting. 

One factor that could limit civilian casualties is al-Shabab’s recent history of avoiding major engagement with advancing AMISOM forces. As they did in Mogadishu in mid-2011, the insurgents are expected by some analysts to withdraw from Kismayo rather than put up a fight. 

HRW has received reports that al-Shabab was attempting to block the movement of people out of the city. According to the UN Refugee Agency, over 800 people have been displaced from Kismayo over the last three weeks. Unconfirmed reports point to increased displacement from the town in the last 24 hours. Before this upsurge, many people were leaving more because of a lack of humanitarian assistance than fear of military intervention, the agency's population movement tracking data indicates. The al-Shabab-controlled general hospital was recently reported to be admitting some 40 suspected cases of cholera every week. 

Whether al-Shabab is routed from Kismayo or withdraws quietly, few believe its departure will lead to immediate stability. "International military interventions in Somalia have been plagued by unforeseen consequences," said Chatham House analyst Adjoa Anyimadu. "No one's giving much attention to the idea that civilians suffering under al-Shabab could find they are suffering again" once they leave, he said. 

One aid worker who asked not to be named said there was a danger of a "governance vacuum in Kismayo, as various forces will vie for control, influence and power. It would be good to know what governance plans are being drawn up." 

From the Integrated Regional Information Network (IRIN), Aug. 15