But, as we noted as long ago as 2003, the Shining Path guerilla movement has fractured, with a new ultra-hardline element refusing to accept the ceasefire call issued (whether under coercion or not) by Abimael "Chariman Gonzalo" Guzmán upon his arrest in 1992. From Latinamerica Press, Oct. 19:

Fred Rosen writes for Mexico's El Universal, Oct. 15:

NAFTA: An interim assessment

Because the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is a prototype for Washington´s larger plans for the Americas, the nearly 13-year-old trade pact among the United States, Mexico and Canada, has been subject to continual interim assessments and analyses.

Subcommander Marcos (now known as "Delegate Zero") and other members of the Zapatista delegation arrived in Tijuana Oct. 18 after traveling up the Baja California peninsula, with stops in Ensenada and other communities where they met with Mixtec migrant laborers from Oaxaca. Marcos remarked publicly on their abysmal living conditions in shanties around the agribusiness farms, and attacked Baja California Gov. Eugenio Elorduy as "stupid" for tolerating such conditions. He also expressed solidarity with the struggle in the Mixtecs' native Oaxaca. In Tijuana, where the delegation is hosted in a reconverted theater by the local Multikulti collective, Marcos is scheduled to meet with maquilladora workers. The delegation also atteneded a demonstration outside the local Sempra Energy gas plant, which is accused of contaminating local waters. (APRO, Frontera, Oct. 18)

Following an extended debate, a Mexican Senate committee voted 11-3 late Oct. 18 not to dissolve the Oaxaca state government, while demonstrators demanding a solution to the five-month crisis announced plans to escalate protests. In Oaxaca City, a teacher was shot and killed by unknown assailants after leaving a late-night meeting with other teachers.

Even Bush appears to be facing the grim music from Iraq. Asked in an ABC News interview Oct. 18 whether he agreed with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman's opinion that the violence in Iraq was "the jihadist equivalent of the Tet offensive," Bush responded: "He could be right. There's certainly a stepped-up level of violence, and we're heading into an election." Attacks in Iraq killed about 40 people on Oct 19. The death toll for US troops rose to 72 for October, which could become one of their deadliest months in two years. (Stuff.com, Oct. 20) Iraq’s interior minister, Jawad al Bolani, has pledged to purge his offices of sectarian influence, but this has failed to stem the escalating violence. (NYT, Oct. 14) Recent proposals by Washington to partition Iraq may be merely accepting a fait accompli. The south already appears to be a Shi'ite sectarian zone in Iran's orbit, and the north is de facto an independent Kurdish state. All that remains is for a Taliban-style Sunni theocracy to be declared in the center. This Oct. 16 report from Britain's The Herald indicates this may have already come to pass:

Chiapas is now the third Mexican state to adopt a statewide alliance of popular organization with the aim of establishing parallel power on the model of the Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca, following Guerrero and Oaxaca itself. The launching of the "Popular Assembly of the People of Chiapas" (APPC) was announced in a statement by 15 social and labor organization, including local Section 7 of the national teachers union, local Section 50 of the health workers union, and the Frente Campesino y Popular de Chiapas, whose leader Romero Farrera Vicente pledged to hold meetings to build the new organization in every region of the state.(Cuarto Poder, Chiapas, Oct. 17)

An official investigation by Mexico's National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) has confirmed the participation of military troops in May's deadly police operation at the village of San Salvador Atenco. The CNDH reports it has uncovered a document in which the Federal Support Forces (Fuerzas Federales de Apoyo), an agency which provides back-up to state police forces in emergencies, called for troops of the Third Military Police Brigade to join Mexico state police in putting down the protests at Atenco. CNDH chief Jose Luis Soberanes Fernandez said that authorities must not only clarify the facts, but bring criminal charges against those responsible for the beating and sexual abuse of 26 detainees. (APRO, Oct. 17)

As odds for the legal removal of Gov. Ulises Ruiz seemed to narrow Oct. 16, Oaxaca activists camped out in Mexico City's historic center began a hunger strike aimed at pressuring the federal government to find a solution to the five-month crisis. Senate sources indicated to the daily El Universal that a bid to declare the Ruiz administration unable to govern will likely fail in the looming vote. The paper reports that a subcommittee majority has prepared a report concluding that no "disappearance of powers" is justified in Oaxaca. However, Government Secretary Carlos Abascal, who is charged with settling the Oaxaca conflict, seemed to differ with the Senate committee, saying, "The local authorities haven't had the capacity to maintain peace, order and security. That's why what's happening in that state is happening."